Posted by: Bruce Allen | August 10, 2018

Day of Reckoning Looms for Republicans

© Bruce Allen    August 10, 2018 


Broken_GOP image

When the pillars of the Republican party decided to get in bed with Donald Trump two years ago, they did so knowing there would probably be a price to pay down the road. They largely abandoned most of their historic principles, held their noses, and went all in with the ludicrous “Trump Agenda,” (No Turbans or Greasers and Give Me All the Money) which changes from day to day anyway. During these two years of rank hypocrisy and amateurish political cowardice, most Democrats have been awaiting the day these hacks would get their feet held to the fire.

That day is approaching. November 6th. Mark it on your calendar.

The recent spate of primary and special elections makes it pretty clear to almost everyone (except Trump) that the Republican party is going to experience an epic fail in November. The deafening loss of the House is all but assured. Maintaining their razor-thin margin in the Senate looks probable, but far from certain. Governorships are in play, many of them playing poorly for the GOP. What is becoming clear is that the Trump brand of support is essential during primaries but will likely be toxic in the general. Which is where it gets uncomfortable to be a Republican politician. And which is where Democrats start flexing their imaginations—this could be good.

Trump and his insatiable ego—really, the guy has a mental disease. Look at his tweet about the Ohio congressional primary—can now be clearly seen to have a divisive effect upon Republicans and a unifying effect among Democrats. If there’s a “Democrats for Trump” movement somewhere it’s keeping a pretty low profile. Amongst Republicans, there are two camps: Trump’s base, and the rest of them, breaking about 40/60. 40% will only vote for Trump Republicans; 60% would rather not. There won’t be much crossover in November or in 2020.

Republicans losing the House represents an existential crisis for the Trump administration. Committee chairs switch, hearings start getting scheduled, witnesses called, subpoenas issued. No more “tax reform,” no more hacking away at the social safety net. Devin Nunes, Douchebag of the Week, is right. Losing the House will put Trump on Resignation Island, all by his lonesome. Watch Don Jr. go to prison? Probably not. Even the current loathsome Supreme Court cannot take on the mantel of brazenly protecting Trump in such a critical time for the Constitution.

I mean, they’ve still got the pathetic Mike Pence on deck. Lose Agent Orange, pick up an evangelical stuffed shirt—that’s a small win for America.

There is far more enthusiasm amongst Democrats than at any time in recent memory, certainly 2016. Women and minorities are raising money and attracting young voters. They have appealing issues to argue—healthcare, immigration, tax “reform,” the Culture of Corruption, gerrymandering, etc. No Hillary factor to defend. The Democratic party is attracting motivated suburban voters, 59% of which disapprove of Trump in recent polling. And for Democrats it’s only going to get better in the weeks until the election.

Trump tariffs will have started to bite, leading to layoffs and higher prices for a variety of consumer goods and raw materials. Group health plans for many Americans will reveal significant 2019 health cost increases and coverage reductions during open enrollment in October. Mueller is going to drop dozens of indictments and may subpoena Trump to testify before a grand jury. Korea could heat up again in an instant. Manafort will get convicted twice, Cohen will get charged, cop an immediate plea, and begin singing like a bird. Bond yield curves indicate a recession is around the corner, economic numbers will deteriorate. The national debt is climbing rapidly; shutdown has been promised by Himself. And Republicans around the country will have to defend themselves against commercials, produced themselves, in which they can be seen kowtowing to this amoral racist buffoon.

There is always the possibility the Democrats in their eternal and generally futile quest for unity will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But, thanks entirely to Trump, what we’re seeing is the Blue Wave building offshore, with most Democrats supporting other Democrats, left, right and center. By the time the wave hits the beach in November, Republicans from California to Maine will be getting scattered across the sand; low turnout caused by marked disunity having been the last straw. What’s the over/under on House turnover? +60? +70?

Serves them right. This is what happens when you sell your soul.

Keep tweeting, Mr. President.


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